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Trump Tariff Tornado: Will Your Wallet Survive? Updated

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Updated: 42 minutes ago

Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum and Canada's Justin Trudeau posted on social media about plans to police their borders. New tariffs on goods from China are still set to go into effect

Updates as of February 4, 2025

Trump Pauses Tariffs on Mexico and Canada, But Not China


U.S. President Donald Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Monday, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement with the two neighbouring countries.


U.S. tariffs on China are still due to take effect today.


Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said they had agreed to bolster border enforcement efforts in response to Trump's demand to crack down on immigration and drug smuggling. That would pause 25% tariffs due to take effect today for 30 days.


Canada agreed to deploy new technology and personnel along its border with the United States and launch cooperative efforts to fight organized crime, fentanyl smuggling and money laundering. Mexico agreed to reinforce its northern border with 10,000 National Guard members to stem the flow of illegal migration and drugs.


Read more in an article from Reuters.

By: David Alire Garcia, Trevor Hunnicutt and David Ljunggren, Reuters; CIFFA


One Negotiation with Trump, Done. On to Round 2


Canadians have spent months passionately debating about what, exactly, U.S. President Donald Trump wants from us. Is it just some border fixes or broader economic changes?


As it turns out, both are correct.


A months-long tariff psychodrama has just ended with Canada announcing and re-announcing a bunch of measures Monday aimed at the border and drug-trafficking.


Now, it's on to the next one. Trump is threatening to reinstate tariffs in 30 days unless he can reach a new economic deal with Canada: "FAIRNESS FOR ALL," he posted online, in all caps.


It's a little early to predict his bottom line in the next round of talks, but he's been talking about dairy, auto parts, military spending and, now, banking regulations.


But wait, there's more!


Trump simultaneously released a formal declaration suggesting a different goal for the next 30 days. He'll also be watching for progress at the Canadian border, otherwise, take a wild guess about what he's threatening next.


You guessed correctly: More tariffs.


Read more in an article from CBC News

By: Alexander Panetta, CBC News; CIFFA

China Renews Threat to Counter U.S. Tariffs


China has reiterated its threat to take “necessary countermeasures to defend its legitimate rights and interests” following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 10% tariffs on China for allegedly doing too little to stem the production of precursor chemicals for fentanyl.


The Foreign Ministry statement issued on February 2 did not mention any specific retaliatory measures, but said “China calls on the United States to correct its wrongdoings, maintain the hard-won positive dynamics in the counternarcotics cooperation, and promote a steady, sound and sustainable development of China-U.S. relationship.”


China says the U.S. action violates World Trade Organization rules and has vowed to bring a case before the body that governs global commerce.


By: Transport Topics; CIFFA


Trump to Speak with China’s Xi After Raising Tariffs, White House Says


U.S. President Donald Trump will speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping as soon as this week, Trump’s spokesperson said, setting up a major diplomatic exchange as the world’s two largest economies seek a deal that could avert a broader trade war.


The call will be Trump and Xi’s first known talks since Trump took office on January 20. They previously spoke before Trump’s inauguration.


On Monday, the Republican president threatened to ramp up tariffs on China. He imposed a 10% duty on all their goods on Saturday that are set to take effect on Tuesday.


Those tariffs stopped short of Trump’s campaign promises for steeper tariffs of 60% on Chinese goods. On Monday, he described the initial tranche as an “opening salvo.”


Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Steve Holland; Editing by Alistair Bell and Stephen Coates, BNN Bloomberg; CIFFA


 

Updates as of Late February 3, 2025 PST

Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico paused for a month, China duties set to take effect Tuesday


Days after announcing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, President Donald Trump agreed to #delay them for one month after leaders from #Canada and #Mexico announced moves to ramp up security at their borders — averting, at least for now, tariffs that could have driven up prices for U.S. consumers and stalled the countries' economies.


Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau wrote on social media Monday afternoon that Canada would be spending $1.3 billion on a plan to reinforce its border with new helicopters, technology, and personnel, as well as additional resources to stop the flow of fentanyl. Canada had announced its $1.3 billion border and immigration #investment at the end of last year.


Trump soon posted as well, focusing on fentanyl and emphasizing that tariffs would be "paused for a 30 day period to see whether or not a final Economic deal with Canada can be structured."


Earlier in the day, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum posted on social media that Mexico will immediately reinforce its northern border with 10,000 members of the country's National Guard to address drug trafficking from Mexico into the U.S., particularly fentanyl.


Once again, Trump said in his post on social media that the U.S. will continue negotiations with Mexico over border security, headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.


Read More: NBC News

By: Shannon Pettypeice at NBC News


 

Updates as of Early February 3, 2025 EST

Escalating Trade Tensions: U.S. Imposes Tariffs, Canada and Mexico Retaliate

In a significant escalation of trade tensions, the United States has announced substantial #tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug trafficking. This move has prompted swift retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico, signaling a potential trade #war among North American partners.


U.S. Implements Tariffs

On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, with a 10% tariff on #Chinese goods. These tariffs are set to take effect on February 4, 2025. They are justified by the administration as necessary to address national security concerns related to illegal immigration and the influx of fentanyl into the United States.


Under the order:

  • A 25% tariff will apply to all #Canada and #Mexican goods crossing the border after midnight on February 4, 2025.

  • A 10% tariff will be imposed specifically on energy imports from Canada.

  • The de minimis exemption for duty-free imports from Canada and Mexico will be eliminated.

  • A 10% tariff will be placed on Chinese goods, extending beyond previous tariff schedules.


The executive order, citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (NEA), and the Trade Act of 1974, argues that illicit opioids and drug trafficking networks constitute an ongoing national emergency. It accuses Canada of failing to coordinate effectively with U.S. law enforcement to curb fentanyl production and trafficking.


Canada’s Response

In response to the U.S. tariffs, Canadian Prime Minister Justin #Trudeau announced a $155 billion retaliatory tariff package.


The initial phase includes a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods, effective February 4, 2025, targeting products such as:

  • Orange juice

  • Peanut butter

  • Wine, spirits, beer, and coffee

  • Appliances

  • Apparel and footwear

  • Motorcycles

  • Cosmetics

  • Pulp and paper


A second phase, involving an additional $125 billion in tariffs, will be finalized after a 21-day public consultation period. Potentially affected products include:

  • Passenger vehicles

  • Steel and aluminum products

  • Fruits and vegetables

  • Aerospace products

  • Beef, pork, and dairy

  • Trucks, buses, recreational vehicles, and boats


The Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, Minister of Finance and Intergovernmental Affairs, and the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, reaffirmed that all options remain on the table, including non-tariff measures, should the U.S. continue imposing unjustified tariffs on Canada.

  • Less than 1 percent of fentanyl and illegal crossings into the U.S. originate from Canada. The government will not stand idly by as Canada is unfairly targeted and will defend Canadian interests, jobs, and businesses.

  • These tariffs will disrupt U.S. auto production, oil refineries, and raise costs for American consumers, putting economic prosperity at risk.

  • To support affected Canadian businesses and workers, the government is establishing a remission process for exceptional tariff relief, with details to be announced soon.

  • Canada continues to work with provinces, territories, business, and labour leaders to present a unified response and advocate with U.S. decision-makers to safeguard the economy.


Mexico’s Response

Mexican President Claudia #Sheinbaum strongly criticized the U.S. measures, rejecting claims that her government was complicit in cartel activities. “We categorically reject the White House’s slander that the Mexican government has alliances with criminal organizations, as well as any intention of meddling in our territory. If the United States government and its agencies wanted to address the serious fentanyl consumption in their country, they could fight the sale of drugs on the streets of their major cities, which they don’t do and the laundering of money that this illegal activity generates that has done so much harm to its population,” Sheinbaum wrote in her post on X.


Sheinbaum directed Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard to implement a “Plan B” involving both tariff and non-tariff retaliatory measures, though specifics remain undisclosed. In addition, she called for a bilateral working group to address the fentanyl crisis, emphasizing that “dialogue, not economic warfare, is the solution.”


U.S.-Mexico Agreement Update

President Trump and President Sheinbaum reached an agreement to pause the imposition of the 25% tariffs on Mexican goods for one month. In return, Mexico has agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to reinforce the U.S.-Mexico border and help combat fentanyl distribution into the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. will collaborate with Mexico to prevent the trafficking of weapons into Mexico. The agreement was reached during a call between Sheinbaum and Trump, and work will commence immediately in the areas of security and trade. (NY Post).


Industry Concerns

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) expressed deep concern over the tariffs’ impact on North American supply chains. Jay Timmons, NAM President and CEO, warned that one-third of critical U.S. manufacturing inputs come from Canada and Mexico, and a 25% tariff could disrupt production, increase costs, and threaten American jobs—particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises.


“However, with essential tax reforms left on the cutting room floor by the last Congress and the Biden administration, manufacturers are already facing mounting cost pressures. A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico threatens to upend the very supply chains that have made U.S. manufacturing more competitive globally. The ripple effects will be severe, particularly for small and medium-sized manufacturers that lack the flexibility and capital to rapidly find alternative suppliers or absorb skyrocketing energy costs. These businesses—employing millions of American workers—will face significant disruptions. Ultimately, manufacturers will bear the brunt of these tariffs, undermining our ability to sell our products at a competitive price and putting American jobs at risk.” (NAM)


Potential Economic Impacts

Economists warn that escalating tariffs could lead to higher consumer prices, supply chain disruptions, and job losses. The automotive, energy, and agricultural sectors are expected to bear the brunt of these trade barriers.


  • Automotive Industry: Higher tariffs on steel and aluminum could increase vehicle production costs.

  • Energy Sector: A 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports may drive up fuel prices in the U.S.

  • Agriculture: U.S. farmers and ranchers, already facing challenges from previous trade disputes, could experience further market access restrictions.


The full economic impact will depend on the duration of the tariffs and any potential negotiations among the affected nations.


The imposition of new tariffs by the United States and the retaliatory actions by Canada and Mexico have heightened trade tensions in North America. As each country moves to protect its interests, these developments highlight the complexity of North American economic interdependence.


Businesses and policymakers are closely monitoring the situation, hoping for a resolution that prevents further economic disruption and maintains the stability of cross-border trade.


Written by: GHY International


 

Updates as of Late January 31, 2025

“Look, Mexico and Canada have never been good to us on trade,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Thursday. “They’ve treated us very unfairly on trade.”


“And we will be able to make that up really quickly, because we don’t need the products that they have,” he added. “We have all the oil you need. We have all the trees you need, meaning the lumber. We have more than almost everybody in those two categories.”


As reasoning for the measure, the president pointed to the number of illegal drugs and migrants crossing the border and what he considers the “massive subsidies … in the form of deficits,” referencing the trade deficit between Canada and the United States.


Trump initially threatened in late November to impose across-the-board 25 percent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico on “day one” of his second term. While the president held off on that threat last Monday, he said during an executive order signing ceremony on that day that he was considering Feb. 1 as the new implementation date.


On Thursday, Trump added: “Those tariffs may or may not rise with time.”


Oil ‘may or may not’ be included


Trump also said oil “may or may not” be carved out of the sweeping tariffs.


When asked whether oil would be included in the levies, Trump initially said “oil is going to have nothing to do with it,” but later clarifying he has yet to make a definitive decision.


“We’re going to make that determination probably tonight, on oil,” he said.


As a potential retaliatory measure to Trump’s tariffs, the Canadian federal government has repeatedly said every option remains on the table, including cutting off energy exports to the United States or imposing an export tax on certain products and resources.


Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has stood staunchly opposed to that idea, arguing Canada should do more to address Trump’s concerns around border security instead of making threats it may not be able to follow through with.


The issue has caused tension between Smith, the federal government, and her fellow premiers in recent weeks.


“We are monitoring the situation and will have more to say when the White House announces its decision,” Smith’s press secretary Sam Blackett wrote in an email statement to CTV News on Thursday.


“In the meantime, the premier reiterates her call to the federal government to immediately appoint a qualified border czar to coordinate a joint U.S.-Canada crack down on fentanyl and illegal migration at our shared border,” Blackett added.


Joly, McGuinty in Washington


Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly and Public Safety Minister David McGuinty are in Washington to meet with U.S. officials and discuss the looming tariff threat.


Amid Trump’s early assertion that border security is the main reason for the tariffs, Canada earmarked $1.3 billion in the fall economic statement to add resources.


When asked whether any American official had signaled to her the tariffs could be avoided, Joly did not directly say.


“I think that the job that we’re doing right now is extremely important,” Joly told reporters from Washington, D.C. on Wednesday. “I think that the relationship between Canada and U.S. is extremely deep, and any form of trade tensions or trade war would have been lasting impacts.”


“And so, in that sense, I think that doing the job of helping my American colleagues to understand what would be at stake, is something that is definitely resonating,” she added.


Canadian officials have recently attempted to highlight Canada’s bolstered border measures.


On Wednesday evening, a source told CTV News that Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, who also maintains responsibility for border security and chairs the cabinet committee on Canada-U.S. relations, texted a three-minute border security video to Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, in an act of quiet diplomacy.


Canada has a three-round retaliation planned, according to a senior government source, which would start by singling out a small list of American-made consumer products such as Kentucky bourbon and Florida orange juice.


This targeting would be followed by tariffs on a longer list of U.S. goods worth $37 billion, and then if needed, Canada would hit an additional $110 billion in manufacturing and other products with trade action.


Canada needs ‘strong and forceful response’: Ford


Ontario Progressive Conservative Leader Doug Ford has been publicly pushing back against Trump and his tariff threat, as well as the president’s comments about using “economic force” to annex Canada.


Ford, who in recent weeks has sported a ballcap reading “Canada is not for sale,” requested the provincial legislature be dissolved this week to launch an election. The Progressive Conservative candidate said he needs a new mandate to better respond to the U.S. president.


“President Trump is hellbent on undermining Canada,” Ford wrote in a post on social media Thursday in response to Trump’s confirmation that tariffs are coming Saturday. “The federal government needs to be ready to immediately implement a strong and forceful response. Dollar for dollar. Tariff for tariff.”


“Canada won’t start this fight, but we have to be ready to win it,” he added.


The renewed threat comes after some believed they could be avoided


Trump’s comments on Thursday come just one day after Lutnick signaled that Canada could avoid tariffs in the short term if border concerns are addressed.


During his confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate on Wednesday, Lutnick detailed a two-stage tariff approach, in which the first round is tied to the border and the second round is part of a broader plan in the spring. That phase would come after a study into alleged unfair trade practices due April 1.


“So, this is a separate tariff to create action from Mexico and action from Canada. And as far as I know, they are acting swiftly, and if they execute it, there will be no tariff,” Lutnick said Wednesday.


According to a senior government source, Lutnick discussed that tariff approach to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during a conversation in Poland on Monday.


Trudeau also met virtually with premiers on Wednesday to discuss the Canada-U.S. relationship, after which Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey said the prime minister conveyed tariffs could be avoided immediately.


“The (tariff threat) in February seems to be tied to actions on our borders, and we were led to believe that if appropriate actions were taken then the tariffs could be avoided on February 1,” Furey said in an interview with CTV’s Power Play on Wednesday.


Singh calls on Liberals to recall Parliament


NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said Canada needs to “fight back” against Trump tariffs and implement retaliatory measures, namely by cutting off critical minerals to the U.S.


Parliament is prorogued until March 24. When it returns, Singh has pledged to vote to bring down the Liberal government.


But Singh said he wants MPs to come together in the interim to pass legislation for countermeasures to Trump.


“I’m calling on the Liberal government to recall Parliament,” Singh said at a press conference Thursday. “Bring Parliament back. Let’s pass legislation that supports workers, because we’re going to have an election in the spring.”


“Nothing changes around that,” he added. “We are going to be voting down the government in March, but there’s still two months.”


Sources tell CTV News that the federal government is planning a stimulus package to help businesses and Canadians if Trump imposes tariffs, but the scale of relief will depend on the scope of the tariffs.


Written by: Stephanie Ha and Spencer Van Dyk, CTV News; CIFFA

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